Midterm elections predictions plus#

A president’s ability to accomplish his agenda has everything to do with whether his party controls the two houses of Congress, says Nordlinger. The majority party determines who leads important congressional committees. Why is this so important? “Whoever controls the House or the Senate controls the agenda,” says Gary Nordlinger, a professor of politics at George Washington University. He was most recently a deputy assistant to the president and deputy director of the Office of Legislative Affairs at the White House.Volunteers register voters in Santa Fe, New Mexico.

Michael McKenna, a columnist for The Washington Times, co-hosts “The Unregulated” podcast.

Sometimes survey results are just propaganda, and not even subtle propaganda. Those who release them are intentionally trying to create the illusion that the election contests are closer than they actually are. Raphael Warnock leads by an average of 3% among surveys of likely voters, while Republican Herschel Walker leads by an average of 1% among surveys of registered voters.Īt this point in the cycle - less than 90 days to election day and the close of voting - surveys of registered voters are, essentially, useless for all purposes except propaganda. There, brand awareness is no doubt affecting the survey results, as Democratic Sen. The lone exception to all of this is the Senate race in Georgia. In most other cases, there are simply not enough survey results available. Marco Rubio a modest 3.3% lead on average, while surveys of likely voters give him a more generous 9.5% advantage on average. Similarly, in Florida, surveys of registered voters give Republican Sen. At the same time, surveys of likely voters give a very small advantage (.3%, on average) to her competitor, Republican Adam Laxalt. In Nevada, surveys of registered voters give an almost 7% advantage (on average) to Democratic Sen. Publicly available survey work on the Senate is harder to come by, so comparisons are difficult. That indicates a majority that looks like 235 seats for the Republicans in the next Congress.

However, it seems reasonable to assume that the Republicans’ current advantage on the generic ballot is midway between zero and 7.5%. Democrats are outraising Republicans in most places, and when you look at the individual races, it is tough to come up with more than three dozen truly competitive races that the Republicans might win. The notion that the Republicans are going to net 65 or 75 seats this cycle is absurd and ungrounded. That advantage is not, however, insuperable. In short, when you focus on results from the more precise surveys, the Republicans have a decided advantage.

Midterm elections predictions plus#

The average result for the ballot test in these surveys of likely voters is about plus 7% for the Republicans. In these surveys, the Republicans led the generic ballot test in 32 of them. The 33 reported surveys of likely voters tell a very different story. The average result of these surveys of registered voters is about plus. In comparison, surveys of registered voters are sort of the lowest common denominator because they don’t account for who might actually vote.Īmong the 107 surveys of registered voters, the Democrats led the generic ballot test in 46, the Republicans led in 47, and there have been 14 ties. They are better predictors of election outcomes because they include people who routinely vote, who follow the news, etc. Surveys of likely voters are more relevant to campaigns and election outcomes. The remaining 33 are from surveys of likely voters. Of those, 107 are from surveys of registered voters. From the beginning of 2022 until a few days ago, there are 140 surveys that had generic ballot test results reported on RCP’s site.

If you examine the results of the generic ballot questions in surveys included on the Real Clear Politics website, an interesting and probably not accidental pattern emerges.